There is a technology, very special – in the field of basic chemicals, if your daily life leaves it, the quality of life will be greatly reduced.
This field, called polyurethane, and this technology, is the phosgene chemical technology for the production of polyurethane key material MDI. Countless downstream consumer industries are inseparable from it. For example: your home’s ceilings, walls, refrigerators, sofas, mattresses, as well as the sneakers, shoes we wear, the cotton pads for girls, bags, and even Bra… The main product is MDI, the chemical name is ” Diphenylmethane diisocyanate”.
有一門技術,很特別——是在基礎化工領域,看似這個行業離我們很遠,但你的日常生活如果離開了它,生活質量會大打折扣。
這個領域,名叫聚氨酯,而這個技術,就是生產聚氨酯關鍵材料MDI的光氣化學技術。無數個下游消費產業,都離不開它。比如:你家裡的天花板、牆壁、電冰箱、沙發、床墊,還有我們穿的運動鞋、皮鞋,女生用的化妝棉、包包、乃至Bra……主要產品,就是MDI,化學名叫“二苯基甲烷二異氰酸酯”。
The MDI demand side maintained steady growth. According to the demand growth rate, it needs to increase the production capacity by 400,000 tons in 2017 to meet the requirements.
In 2016, the global polyurethane production will be 23.39 million tons, with a 5-year compound growth rate of 4.53%. It is expected that the global polyurethane market will reach 77 billion US dollars in 2023, and the upstream raw material gross profit will be 30%-55 %between. Its upstream is mainly the main materials and series of auxiliary materials such as isocyanate, polyester polyol, polyether polyol, etc., all of which are bulk chemicals;
The includes urethane foam (rigid foam, flexible foam, etc.), leather polyurethane (PU pulp, apparel field), polyurethane coating (wood, vehicle surface coating), polyurethane elastomer (such as wheels, shoes), polyurethane adhesives (metal and non-metallic binders), polyurethane fibers (apparel).
Among them, polyurethane foam has the largest market share, accounting for 40%, followed by leather polyurethane (19%), paint (16%), elastomer (9%), and gross profit of about 20%.
MDI需求端保持穩定增長,按需求增速,2017年需要新增產能40萬噸才能滿足,而全球只有陶氏沙特阿美(陶氏和沙特阿美合資公司)新增了40萬噸,且預計在2017年下半年投產; 2016年,全球聚氨酯產量為2339萬噸,5年復合增長率為4.53%,預計2023年全球聚氨酯市場規模將達到770億美元,上游原材料毛利在30%-55%之間。其上游主要是異氰酸酯、聚酯多元醇、聚醚多元醇等主料和系列輔料,均為大宗化工品;
其中游主要包括氨酯泡沫塑料(硬質泡沫、軟質泡沫等)、革用聚氨酯(PU漿料,服飾領域)、聚氨酯塗料(木材、交通工具表面塗層)、聚氨酯彈性體(比如車輪、鞋用彈性體)、聚氨酯粘合劑(金屬與非金屬粘合劑)、聚氨酯纖維(氨綸,服飾領域)。
其中,聚氨酯泡沫塑料市場份額最大,佔40%,其次是革用聚氨酯(19%)、塗料(16%)、彈性體(9%),毛利約為20%左右。
其下游主要是建築、家具、家電、汽車、服裝、醫療等領域。其中,建築和家居行業佔比大,約佔全球消費市場的50%,其次是汽車領域(20%)、塗料、膠粘劑和密封劑(合計19%)。[5]
前面提過,其下游應用產業眾多,這裡主要分析一下其上游的材料。上游材料主要有異氰酸酯類、聚醚多元醇、聚酯多元醇、助劑類。
異氰酸酯——異氰酸酯是異氰酸的各種酯的總稱,主要包括MDI、TDI、HDI。其中,MDI和TDI應用最為廣泛,兩者互為替代品,但,MDI比TDI的毒性低,且塑性好,應用更為普遍。
MDI,主要是生產硬泡、半硬泡,比如冰箱的內外殼、冷鏈物流、建築、漿料和鞋底原液,下游需求每年增速約為6%。產品技術及資金壁壘極高,行業集中度高,前五大廠商產能佔比高達88%。2016年,全球產能約為861萬噸。
代表企業有:萬華化學(中國)、巴斯夫(德國)、科思創(德國拜爾子公司)、亨斯邁(美國)、陶氏化學(美國)、三井化學(日本)、東曹公司(日本)和錦湖三井公司(韓國)